Despite a dry fall and rainy spring, the Illinois wheat crop isn't shaping up nearly as bad as most analysts originally anticipated.
The Illinois wheat yield for the 2011 crop is estimated to average 62 bushels per acre based on the June 1 surveys, up one bushel from the May 1 forecast.
Total production would be 45.3 million bushels, more than two and a half times the 2010 production of 16.5 million bushels. Farmers expect to harvest 730,000 acres for grain this year, 435,000 more than in 2010. As of May 29, 69% of the wheat crop was filled, compared to 57% last year and the five-year average of 54%.
Winter Wheat production is forecast at 1.45 billion bushels, up 2% from the
May 1 forecast but down 2% from 2010. Based on June 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 45.3 bushels per acre, up 0.8 bushel from the previous forecast but down 1.5 bushels from last year.
Expected grain area totals 32.0 million acres, unchanged from last month. As of May 29, 33% of the winter wheat crop in the 18 major producing States was rated in good to excellent condition, 32 points below the same week in 2010, and heading had reached 72%, 4 percentage points behind the 5-year average.
Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the six Hard Red Winter States (Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Texas) are below last year's level in all States except Oklahoma. Improved weather conditions during the past month in the Upper Great Plains resulted in higher forecasted yields. Harvest had begun in Oklahoma, Texas, and southern Kansas.
Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in the three Soft Red Winter States (Illinois, Missouri, and Ohio) are all above last year's levels. Wet conditions in Ohio lowered yield expectations from last month. If realized, yield in North Carolina will be a new record high and the Michigan yield will equal the record high.
Forecasted head counts from the objective yield survey in Washington are above last year. The percent of the crop headed in the Pacific Northwest was behind the 5-year average in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. Yield forecasts increased from last month in Oregon and Washington despite rust concerns.