markets charts - green with red line phongphan5922/Thinkstock

Afternoon Market Recap for Sept. 24, 2018

Corn, wheat prices continue to firm.

Soybean futures drop around 0.75% lower in Monday’s session

Grain markets turned in a mixed performance Monday, with corn prices up another 1% on a round of short-covering after another solid round of export data released Monday morning. Wheat prices also trended moderately higher amid some technical buying today, with soybean prices easing on U.S.-China trade fears. 

Variable weather to start the week will give way to mostly seasonally cool daytime highs across much of the central U.S. by Thursday and Friday. The latest five-day cumulative precipitation map from NOAA shows much of the eastern Corn Belt is expected to receive another 1” to 2” of rainfall between now and September 29.

The U.S. and China – the world’s two largest economies – upped the ante on its current trade skirmish today, with each country adding billions of dollars more in tariffs directed at the other. The move spooked Wall St., with the Dow down 167 points Monday afternoon to 26,575. Energy prices spiked, meantime, with crude oil up nearly 2% to move back above $72 per barrel, with gasoline and diesel futures also up significantly. The U.S. Dollar softened fractionally.

Mastering options can feel like an intimidating process, but the latest Deep Dive podcast may help you get a better handle on how to use options more effectively in your operation. Click here to learn more.

 

Corn prices extended gains on Monday, moving another 1% higher in the session after solid export data helped spark a round of short-covering. December and March futures each added 3.25 cents to close at $3.6050 and $3.7250, respectively.

Corn basis bids were mixed Monday, trending 2 to 3 cents higher at several river terminals but sinking as much as 7 cents lower across multiple Midwestern ethanol plants.

Corn export inspections reached 49.7 million bushels last week, which was moderately ahead of the prior week’s total of 40.8 million bushels, while exceeding trade estimates that ranged between 33 million and 45 million bushels. Japan was the No. 1 destination for U.S. corn export inspections last week, with 11.9 million bushels. 

Ahead of Monday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report, analysts expect the agency to show U.S. corn harvest progress reaching 16% completion, up from 9% the week prior. Analysts expect USDA will leave quality ratings unchanged, with 68% of the crop rated in good-to-excellent condition.

European Union corn imports reached 129.9 million bushels as of September 23, starting the 2018/19 marketing year 4% slower than last year’s pace.

Ukraine’s 2018 corn harvest has reached 16% completion, with total production so far at 161 million bushels with a per-acre average of 83.6 bpa. 

The latest updates from Feedback from the Field have corn farmers reporting average yields of 173 bpa, which is significantly lower than the latest USDA estimates of 181.3 bpa. Click here to read the latest farmer reports and view the interactive map to see how yields are stacking up in your area. 

And in the latest Fertilizer Outlook from Farm Futures senior grain market analyst Bryce Knorr, learn more why winter fertilizer bargains could be rare. Click here for the full analysis.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 195,294 CBOT contracts, easing from Friday’s final count of 229,859.

 

Soybean prices slugged through a choppy session Monday, ultimately easing around 0.75% on U.S.-China trade worries. November futures fell 6.25 cents to $8.41, while January futures dropped 6 cents to $8.5525. 

Soybean basis bids were highly variable Monday, moving as much as 15 cents lower at Midwestern processors but firming by as much as 10 cents at river terminals. 

Soybean export inspections of 25.5 million bushels last week were lower than the prior week’s total of 28.9 million bushels but landed in the middle of trade estimates, which ranged between 20 million and 33 million bushels. Spain was the No. 1 destination for U.S. soybean inspections last week, with 5.1 million bushels.

Ahead of Monday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report, analysts expect the agency to show 13% of the U.S. soybean crop has been harvested, up from 6% the week prior. Analysts also expect USDA to leave quality ratings unchanged, with 67% of the crop rated in good-to-excellent condition.

Private exporters reported to USDA the sale of 6.0 million bushels of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/19 marketing year, which began September 1. 

The U.S. is the No. 1 supplier of EU soybean imports so far in 2018/19, accounting for more than 52% of the total 106.6 million bushels of imports so far. Total EU soybean imports are up 4% so far year-over-year. 

Over the same time period, EU soymeal imports are down 21% year-over-year, with 3.8 million metric tons, with EU palm oil imports of 1.3 MMT down 21% year-over-year.

The latest updates from Feedback from the Field have soybean farmers reporting average yields of 52.7 bpa, which is mostly in line with the latest estimates from USDA. Click here to read the latest farmer reports and view the interactive map to see how yields are stacking up in your area.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 87,118 contracts, dropping moderately below Friday’s final count of 133,705.

 

Wheat prices were assisted by a round of technical buying Monday, with some contracts up nearly 1% today. December Chicago SRW futures added 5.25 cents to $5.27, December Kansas City HRW futures gained 3.75 cents to $5.29, and December MGEX spring wheat futures moved ahead 1.75 cents to $5.84. 

Wheat export inspections of 15.1 million bushels last week matched the prior week’s total (also 15.1 million) and landed in the middle of the average trade guess, which ranged between 12 million and 18 million bushels. Italy was the No. 1 destination for U.S. wheat export inspections last week, with 2.8 million bushels.

Ahead of Monday afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress report, analysts expect the agency to move U.S. winter wheat planting from 13% complete the prior week up to 25% complete for the week ending September 23.

EU soft wheat exports for 2018/19 have reached 139.6 million bushels as of September 23, which is down 29% year-over-year so far. Barley exports of 59.7 million bushels are also down 3% year-over-year.

Russia’s 2018 wheat harvest has reached 2.388 billion bushels as of September 21 –nearly 20% behind the pace of last year’s harvest. Average per-acre yields are coming in at 44.6 bpa.

Ukraine’s 2018 wheat harvest is in the books, with a total production of 922 million bushels, with a per-acre average of 56.5 bpa. 

The United Arab Emirates issued an international tender to purchase 2.2 million bushels of milling wheat, which closes Monday. The grain is for shipment in October or November.

Bahrain issued an international tender to purchase nearly 919,000 bushels of wheat, which closes October 2.

Preliminary volume estimates were for 74,118 CBOT contracts, rebounding moderately from Friday’s final count of 58,860.

Hide comments

Comments

  • Allowed HTML tags: <em> <strong> <blockquote> <br> <p>

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
Publish